Compare the size of economic stimuli being applied by countries across the globe in an effort to contain the growth of the disease and it is clear that India's per-capita stimulus is quite low.
Let's get into the reasons why:
Every country in the world can print money. That money can be used to buy things locally. The only thing that holds governments back from printing money is that it leads to inflation, thereby bringing the value of the money back to its original value.
Now say that country A wants to buy from country B. Country B would not accept the currency from country A since the government of country A could simply print all the money it needs. That leads to inter currency exchange rates. To arrive at an exchange rate, one must convert each of the currencies to a mutually agreed value. That value could be derived from a commodity that is heavily traded between the two countries or it could be derived from the relative value of the currency from country A and the currency from country B as compared to a third reserve currency that both countries trust.
For a currency to act as a reserve, the government that prints the reserve currency must be stable, trustworthy, transparent and be run on sound economic principles. The country that prints that currency must trade widely so that the value of its currency with respect to goods is widely acknowledged.
The only country that meets the above criteria is the USA and that is what makes the US dollar the world's reserve currency - the currency of choice to keep savings in. The US can print the money it needs since there are systemic checks and balances in place that the entire world trusts. This explains the extraordinary size of the US stimulus as compared to those from around the world.
All other countries in the world including those in the European Union, need to keep a liquid hoard of US dollars so that it can be used to buy things outside the EU. Both the EU and China have been trying to make the Euro and the Yuan become reserve currencies but that have only succeeded marginally and instead they too have to keep up their "forex reserves" (foreign exchange reserves).
Since India cannot print its own money, India needs to produce things of value that other countries would want to buy from India with US dollars. At the rate things are going, ventilators might very well become the preferred reserve currency in the world. Also, since it is virtually impossible for any country to build everything its populace needs by itself, India will need to keep a strong forex reserve that can be deployed in times of national crises such as that triggered by COVID-19.
India also needs strong independent institutions rather than relying on regional or national level strong-men since strong institutions truly establish lasting trust in a country and its policies. The chaos caused by the sudden imposition of a nationwide lockdown imposed without thought given to food delivery, labor migration, etc. demonstrates the need for institutional clear-headedness and not personality-based leadership. Even in the US, President Trump had to follow the voices of reason coming from Drs. Fauci and Birx and extend the shutdown, despite wanting to open up the economy by Easter.
Finally, the death of a child due to starvation starkly illustrates the value of an Indian life, determined by the present day Indian government. In contrast, the low fatality rate in Germany shows the value of investment by a government into the wellbeing of its own people. I don't want to translate the fatality rates into a math equation: one German life is equal to x Indian lives type of an exchange rate, but that is the sad truth.
Manoj Kumar was wrong.
Every country in the world can print money. That money can be used to buy things locally. The only thing that holds governments back from printing money is that it leads to inflation, thereby bringing the value of the money back to its original value.
Now say that country A wants to buy from country B. Country B would not accept the currency from country A since the government of country A could simply print all the money it needs. That leads to inter currency exchange rates. To arrive at an exchange rate, one must convert each of the currencies to a mutually agreed value. That value could be derived from a commodity that is heavily traded between the two countries or it could be derived from the relative value of the currency from country A and the currency from country B as compared to a third reserve currency that both countries trust.
For a currency to act as a reserve, the government that prints the reserve currency must be stable, trustworthy, transparent and be run on sound economic principles. The country that prints that currency must trade widely so that the value of its currency with respect to goods is widely acknowledged.
The only country that meets the above criteria is the USA and that is what makes the US dollar the world's reserve currency - the currency of choice to keep savings in. The US can print the money it needs since there are systemic checks and balances in place that the entire world trusts. This explains the extraordinary size of the US stimulus as compared to those from around the world.
All other countries in the world including those in the European Union, need to keep a liquid hoard of US dollars so that it can be used to buy things outside the EU. Both the EU and China have been trying to make the Euro and the Yuan become reserve currencies but that have only succeeded marginally and instead they too have to keep up their "forex reserves" (foreign exchange reserves).
Since India cannot print its own money, India needs to produce things of value that other countries would want to buy from India with US dollars. At the rate things are going, ventilators might very well become the preferred reserve currency in the world. Also, since it is virtually impossible for any country to build everything its populace needs by itself, India will need to keep a strong forex reserve that can be deployed in times of national crises such as that triggered by COVID-19.
India also needs strong independent institutions rather than relying on regional or national level strong-men since strong institutions truly establish lasting trust in a country and its policies. The chaos caused by the sudden imposition of a nationwide lockdown imposed without thought given to food delivery, labor migration, etc. demonstrates the need for institutional clear-headedness and not personality-based leadership. Even in the US, President Trump had to follow the voices of reason coming from Drs. Fauci and Birx and extend the shutdown, despite wanting to open up the economy by Easter.
Finally, the death of a child due to starvation starkly illustrates the value of an Indian life, determined by the present day Indian government. In contrast, the low fatality rate in Germany shows the value of investment by a government into the wellbeing of its own people. I don't want to translate the fatality rates into a math equation: one German life is equal to x Indian lives type of an exchange rate, but that is the sad truth.
Manoj Kumar was wrong.
Nice article Kuntal. Something else to worry about, there is reserve oil, reserve arms, even reserve military in some cases but no access to basic healthcare in US for many.
ReplyDeleteInteresting take on the value of human life especially the deprived sections of the society. Bottom line - "need for institutional clear-headedness". We need to cut across all barriers and get the best brains to work as a team. We can win this fight only by being together.
ReplyDelete