4G and earlier
Despite obvious advantages with respect to interoperability, breadth of coverage and overall capital expenditure, instead of choosing either GSM or CDMA, India's Department of Telecommunications allowed operators to offer services with both radio protocols. For a country that should be worried about efficient allocation of capital, this was a choice that led to short term windfall for the government in terms of spectrum auction prices but eventually led to public-borne losses due to defaults by Reliance Communications [Ref 1].It is imperative that the relevant government authorities learn from past failures and follow well established international practices on spectrum allocation to come up with a 5G spectrum allocation method.
5G
Expected Impact
5G has significant technical improvements over 4G that are expected to enable new use cases and improve productivity. In particular relevance to this blog, 5G can enable more functionality in connected autonomous vehicles. A study claims that within a decade of investment, economic output per person could increase by up to US $1500 after a decade of 5G rollout [Ref 2]. The 5G global value chain including network operators, core technology and component suppliers, device OEMs, infrastructure providers, and content and application developers, is expected to grow to $3.5 trillion in 2035 [Ref 3].
Early indications
5G has two leading contenders - "sub 6" for frequences < 6 GHz and "mmWave" for frequencies > 30 GHz and > 6 GHz.The Indian government has, as per early indications, come out in support of the 24.25-27.5 GHz band. This seems a reasonable first step since it aligns with EU and China plans [Ref 4].
Recommendations
- Align with China.
Unlike 3G and 4G, where an advanced economy like the United States could afford nationwide rollout of both GSM (AT&T and T-Mobile) and CDMA (Verizon and Sprint), a developing economy like India could gain economies of scale by adopting one standard with multiple suppliers. The size of the Chinese market can be expected to be supplied by multiple network equipment vendors from around the world. - Partake in the value chain
While base stations will need to change to support the new radio interface, the back-end can be leveraged from existing networks, albeit with lowered latencies and higher bandwidths. India can target specific elements in infrastructure to be sourced from local companies. Software based switching stations, integrated billing software, nationwide emergency services integration, etc. could be targeted for such initiatives.
Another way to partake in the value chain would be to encourage purchase from suppliers that build their sofware in India. - Overlay security on top
Assume that the underlying network elements are insecure, build a secure layer on top that enables end to end security. - Localize network management
Prioritize growth in local expertise of network management and software. Network management expertise may lead to custom APIs for Indian needs such as for congestion and emergency management. - Finally, accelerate deployment of 5G. ज़माने के साथ चलना पड़ेगा यदि भारत को एक विकसित देश बनाना है|
